Colorado. Runner. Yogi. Fucking hilarious, like, 17% of the time.

and I wish I was special

On Halloween night, at my very excited request, we watched Creep 2. Well, I watched Creep 2 and Crockett played on his phone and sort of watched some of it. Horror movies aren't super his jam and also he was mad at me for not sharing my ice cream. (There was different ice cream in the freezer that he likes and I don't, so don't go thinking I'm a bad ice cream hoggin' jerk face.)

I'd had a hungry-man sized martini at happy hour with my mom, and that may have informed this upcoming  question, just fyi.

The female protagonist of Creep 2 is named Sara, and she makes a youtube show called 'Encounters' where she films herself visiting men who placed weird ads on Craigslist. The bulk of the movie is her hanging out with Mark Duplass (Aaron), who wants her to film the story of his life as a serial killer. He is on the tenth episode of her show.

In that particular situation - woman answers internet ads that are outside of socially expected norms, alone but with a camera - how many of them would she actually have to get through before she ended up with a serial killer?

Math time!!

The FBI estimates there are 25-50 serial killers in the US at any time. I think that's probably a lie to keep us from being terrified? but let's go with 50.

There are 56 million men between the ages of 18 and 44, a) which appear to be who she makes her show about and b) is the likely age and gender of a serial killer.

60 million people use craigslist every month, which is about 1/4 of the US population, but I think we're safe in saying at least half of the 18-44 yo men are in that group. (Also, who out there is using CL all the time? Haven't you heard of LetGo and Tinder?)

This is where it gets squiffy, because if we just stopped here the chances of her meeting a serial killer in the first ten men would be like 5*10^-6. HOWEVER.

I used to be an engineer. I know a lot of engineers, and they're not all crazy people who don't know how to interact with strangers, but ... some of them are. (Sorry, guys, you know you are.) If I really focus, I can think of maybe four men I've met in my entire life who might post something like what she goes and films. (Did I mention that none of what she answers is sex stuff? This would be a whole different discussion if we were talking about casual encounter type stuff.)

Research indicates I've probably met 16,ooo people since my 21st birthday, and I probably know enough about 1000 of them well to guess if they'd be one of these posters.

This is getting ridiculous, I am totally aware.

Using my ratio of 4/1000, we can reduce the number of men she might be responding to 110,000. If 50 of those are serial killers, that means her chances of meeting one in the first ten guys she interviews is 0.45%.



Thank you for your time.

tap tap BZZZ

that one time I was psychic